Payoff dominance and risk dominance in the observable delay game: a note

We examine whether the payoff dominant sequential-move (Stackelberg) outcome is realized when timing is endogenized. We adopt the observable delay game formulated by Hamilton and Slutsky [Games Econ Behav 2(1):29–46, 1990]. We find that if one sequential-move outcome is payoff dominant, either (i) the outcome both players prefer is the unique equilibrium; or (ii) two sequential-move outcomes are equilibria and the one both players prefer is risk dominant. In other words, no conflict between payoff dominance and risk dominance in the observable delay game exists, in contrast to other games such as (non pure) coordination games. We also find that even if one of two sequential-move outcomes is the unique equilibrium outcome in the observable delay game, it does not imply that the equilibrium outcome is payoff dominant to the other sequential-move outcome.      

工程项目工期延误的关键风险研究

工程项目的工期延误风险范围广且难以定量分析,本文在文献研究的基础上,提出了工程项目工期延误的关键风险因素,按照结构方程的分析步骤,运用SPSS13．0和AMOS7．0统计软件对数据进行了分析,对测量模型进行了检验,并得到了最终的结构方程模型,为防止工程项目工期延误起到指导性作用。     

延迟容忍网络自适应差错控制方法

根据延迟容忍网络的时延较大、误码率较高等特点,在现有的传输控制层和MAC层差错控制 的基础上改进,结合IEEE 802.11 DCF机制的特点,提出一种基于MAC层丢包率的自适应差错 控 制方案。该方案能有效改善延迟容忍网络的传输时延,满足对时延要求比较敏感的业务的要 求 。     

Cannon算法在并行计算机上的应用

Cannon算法是一种优秀的并行算法,在多CPU的处理器上,采用Cannon算法能够提高计算效率、高效利用计算机资源。文章阐述了矩阵相乘的并行算法的原理,并运用于实际来减少通信时延。通过仿真实验,证明了Cannon算法在多台PC计算机构成的机群并行计算环境中能够取得理想效果。     

中国未来不同生育水平下的经济增长后果比较研究

对中国未来90年不同生育水平下的经济增长后果进行了人口-经济动态模拟。在生育水平过低导致劳动力减少过快、人口老龄化过重、劳动负担加重的情况下,将使经济增长大大放缓;而较高的生育水平下,虽然经济增长速度略快,但是人均GDP增长速度慢于中方案生育水平下的经济增长,并且人均GDP水平也具有较大差异。完善当前生育政策,使生育水平稳定在1.9-2.0之间,如此人口在本世纪缓慢地减少也将有利于我国的经济增长和人均生活水平的提高。同时,在低生育水平下,依靠劳动增加和资本积累的粗放型经济增长将不复存在,经济发展方式转变是必然选择,技术创新、技术进步将是未来经济增长首要源泉。     

技术创新、贸易竞争优势与出口绩效的实证研究——以山东省为例

本文以山东省为例对技术创新与贸易竞争优势的产业分布与动态变迁进行实证研究,在此基础上使用出口绩效的不变弹性函数来分析技术创新对出口绩效改善的贡献。分析结果表明,技术创新的产业分布与贸易竞争优势基本吻合,滞后一期的技术创新与出口绩效显著正相关。与纺织、食品、家具等传统出口部门相比,汽车、化工等出口需求缺乏弹性的产业部门中较高的研发支出促进了产品品质的改善与新产品的创造,有效提升了产品的差异化竞争优势,改善了贸易条件与出口绩效。尽管如此,制成品出口的技术结构并未显著提高,垂直专业化分工与垂直产业内贸易仍是资本技术密集型产业参与国际分工与贸易的主要形式。     

一种对流层散射通信斜延迟估计方法

为实现对流层散射通信的实时性，针对散射通信延迟估计问题，提出了一种不事先进行信道测量的对流层通信延迟计算方法。首先利用全球压力和温度2（GPT2）模型计算气象数据，然后采用射线描迹法对大气层分层并积分求和，最后计算出对流层散射通信延迟。采用与射线描迹法相结合的方法，摆脱了射线描迹法对探空数据的依赖。最后选取我国三个典型测量站数据进行算例分析，计算结果与我国对流层延迟实际分布特征相吻合，为研究在不事先进行信道测量的情况下计算对流层散射通信延迟量提供了一种新思路。     

Does news travel slowly before a market crash? The role of margin traders

We investigate how investor overconfidence and attention affect market efficiency around the 2015 Chinese stock market crash. We find that the price delay before the crash is about twice the price delay after the crash. Investors become more sensitive to market movements after the crash. Price delays are larger on market down-days than on up-days before the crash, but the differences are insignificant between up- and down-days after the crash, indicating that negative information travels slowly only when investors are overconfident. Margin traders follow market trends and intensify the pyramiding and de-pyramiding effects caused by market sentiment change.     

Equilibria in a large production economy with an infinite dimensional commodity space and price dependent preferences

We prove the existence of a competitive equilibrium in a production economy with infinitely many commodities and a measure space of agents whose preferences are price dependent. We employ a saturated measure space for the set of agents and apply recent results for an infinite dimensional separable Banach space such as Lyapunov’s convexity theorem and an exact Fatou’s lemma to obtain the result.     

Price delay and post-earnings announcement drift anomalies: The role of option-implied betas

In this study, we used informational advantage in the options market to investigate whether the option-implied equity risk developed by Chen, Chung, and Tsai (2016) - viewed as a type of time-varying beta - can help explain both the Hou and Moskowitz (2005) price delay premium and post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD). Our empirical results revealed a clear association between quintile portfolios with greater price delay premiums and higher option-implied betas, while the Fama-MacBeth regressions showed that the implied betas are positively related to future delay-based portfolio returns. Regarding the PEAD, we discerned a general increase in the mean of portfolio option-implied betas with standardized unexpected earnings portfolio drift. Our regression results support the notion that a portfolio’s PEAD can be viewed as compensation for the variations in option-implied betas.